Has Arctic sea ice loss become irreversible?

authordefault
on

The partyโ€™s over, we had us a time..
We burned all the kindlingโ€ฆ
Watched the last coals dwindling
And the ice meltingย downโ€ฆ

โ€“ Elizaย Gilkyson

Is the partyย over?

According to a new study by scientists at the NSICD (National Snow and Ice Data Centre), thereโ€™s a good chance that Arctic sea ice has melted beyond the point of noย return.

Joseph Romm points us to a story in todayโ€™s edition of the UKโ€™s Independent.ย  The news is notย good:

Scientists have found the first unequivocal evidence that the Arctic region is warming at a faster rate than the rest of the world at least a decade before it was predicted toย happen.

Climate-change researchers have found that air temperatures in the region are higher than would be normally expected during the autumn because the increased melting of the summer Arctic sea ice is accumulating heat in the ocean. The phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification, was not expected to be seen for at least another 10 or 15 years and the findings will further raise concerns that the Arctic has already passed the climatic tipping-point towards ice-free summers, beyond which it may notย recover.

Why is this report so important?ย ย Because:

The Arctic is considered one of the most sensitive regions in terms of climate change and its transition to another climatic state will have a direct impact on other parts of the northern hemisphere, as well more indirect effects around theย world.

One of the researchers, Mark Serreze, summarizes Arcticย amplification:

Even our early climate-change models developed in the late 1970s told us that the Arctic would suffer most from the surface warming that came with adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere and that this would be intimately tied to the shrinking of its sea iceย cover.

This is called Arctic amplification and when we look at our climate records, that is exactly what we see: the climate warming, with the strongest rises in temperature in the Arctic, and those rises linked to the loss of sea ice cover โ€“ just as projected 30 yearsย ago.

So, Arctic amplification was predicted by models, and it is actually occurring, much earlier than expected.ย  It is essentially a warning signal, if you will, of what will come, and that it will not be limited to theย Arctic.

Finally, not to put too fine a point on it, Serrezeโ€™s colleague, Dr. Julienne Stroeve, is quoted by the Independent:

โ€œOne of the reasons we focus on Arctic amplification is that it is a good test of greenhouse warming theory. Even our earliest climate models were telling us that we should see this Arctic amplification emerge as we lose the summer ice cover,โ€ Dr Stroeve said. โ€œThis is exactly what we are not starting to see in the observations. Simply put, itโ€™s a case of we hate to say we told you so, but we did,โ€ sheย added.

Are we looking at a future in which the Arctic is completely free of ice?ย  Most likely,ย yes.

How soon? Well, if you have young children, it will be within their lifetime.ย 

Guess those Christmas Arctic references will be limited to television specials.

Related Posts

Analysis
on

Right wing YouTuber Tim Pool is the latest to own โ€˜climate peopleโ€™ with fake facts spouted by a grizzled TV oilman.

Right wing YouTuber Tim Pool is the latest to own โ€˜climate peopleโ€™ with fake facts spouted by a grizzled TV oilman.
on

Critics say the controversial GWP* method โ€“ which New Zealand appears close to adopting โ€“ is โ€œopen to significant abuseโ€.

Critics say the controversial GWP* method โ€“ which New Zealand appears close to adopting โ€“ is โ€œopen to significant abuseโ€.
on

Lord Moynihan of Chelsea, who holds shares in Shell and TotalEnergies, called the green transition a โ€œchildrenโ€™s crusadeโ€.

Lord Moynihan of Chelsea, who holds shares in Shell and TotalEnergies, called the green transition a โ€œchildrenโ€™s crusadeโ€.
on

Carrboro, N.C., accuses Duke of knowingly fueling the climate crisis for decades with harmful emissions, deception, delay, and "greenwashing."

Carrboro, N.C., accuses Duke of knowingly fueling the climate crisis for decades with harmful emissions, deception, delay, and "greenwashing."