U.S. Energy Policies Based on Inflated Fracking Predictions: Post Carbon Institute Report

Julie-Dermansky-022
on

Economic predictions about the fracking industry’s potential growth have for the most part gone unquestioned โ€” untilย now.

A new report from the Post Carbon Institute exposes highly inflated forecasts and concludes that the amount of oil that can be tapped by hydraulic fracturing cannot be maintained at the levels assumed beyondย 2020.

The report, โ€œDrilling Deeper: A Reality Check onย US Government Forecasts for a Lasting Tight Oil & Shale Gas Boom,โ€ says inflated forecasts from the Energy Information Administration have fostered a lack of urgency to transition to renewable energy. The report also looks at the oil industry’s increasedย pressure to relax restrictions on fracking and change oil and gas export rules.ย ย 

โ€œThe Department of Energyโ€™s forecasts โ€” the ones everyone is relying on to guide our energy policy and planning โ€” are overly optimistic based on what the actual well data are telling us,โ€ says David Hughes, a geoscientist and author of the Post Carbon Instituteย report.

The report shatters the governmentโ€™s estimate of the potential productivity of Americaโ€™s shale regions. Four out of seven of the top shale regions have peaked and are now in a decline, the report says. Another three willย peak in production before the governmentโ€™s forecast predicts. In decline already are the Barnett, Haynesville, Fayetteville and Woodford Shales.
ย 

Source: Post Carbonย Instituteย 

In his 2012 inauguration speech, President Obama touted the further development of natural gas coupled with meaningful regulation as America’s โ€œall of the aboveโ€ answer to energy independence. But Americans have yet to see anyย meaningful federal regulation of fracking. There has been little to no monitoring of the long-term consequences of the fracking industry despite growing publicย concern.

Environmental Impacts of Fracking Visible Around the Countryย 

Examples of inadequate environmental protection related to fracking are pilingย up.

Pennsylvania’s attorney general is looking into claims that the stateโ€™s Department of Health has ignoredย citizen complaints about the fracking industry. And the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection was recently compelled to release 243 reports that indicate water contamination caused by the frackingย industry.ย 


Flare at aย Marathon tank battery site in the Eagle Ford Shale region in Texas.ย ยฉ2014 Julieย Dermansky

Meanwhile, regulators in Texasโ€™ Eagle Ford Shale are failing to monitor fracking industry fumes. ย An investigative report published by the Center for Public Integrity showed air monitoring tests were completed far fromย toxicย sites.


Steven Lipskyโ€™s contaminated water in Weatherford, TX.ย ยฉ2014 Julieย Dermansky

This year, eight members of congress called for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to reopen contaminated water studies near fracking sites in Dimock, Pa., Parker County, Texas, and Pavillion, Wyo., after theย EPAโ€™s Inspector General concluded the agency was justified in intervening to protect drinking water from hydraulicย fracturing.

Lon Burnam, a Texas State Representative who lost his latest bid for reelection after serving 18 years, acknowledges that the fracking industry has changed the economic situation inย America.

Watch video of Lon Burnam on theย economics of fracking:ย 

โ€œIt is the single mostย important thing that has turned around the economy since the recession of 2008,โ€ Burnam told DeSmogBlog. But he, like most Texans, knows a thing or twoย about booms and busts in the industry. He worries aboutย what will be left in the wake of the frackingย boom.

โ€œThere is woeful neglect on the regulatory front,โ€ according to Burnam. โ€œPart of it is the lack of will because these state agencies are controlled by the very polluting interests they are supposed to beย regulating, but part of it is there is no money being put back into the system to address the problems being created by the boom.โ€ย 

Burman warns that selling our oil and gas abroad under the guise of energy security is a mistake. He says it will raise prices and create a new wave ofย fracking.

Watch video of Lon Burnam on the need to better regulate the fracking industry:

ShaleTest Environmental Testing, a non-profit organization, recently released โ€œProject Playground,โ€ a report on air quality near playgrounds close to natural gas industry sites in Texas’s Barnett Shaleย region.

According to the report, carcinogens were presentย at three playgroundsย at levels exceeding the Texas Commission of Environmental Qualityโ€™s long-term ambientย limit.

โ€œThe oil and gas industry claims that theyโ€™re drilling responsibly,โ€ ShaleTest president Tim Ruggiero says, but โ€œthese tests show theyโ€™reย not.โ€

Toxic emissions from the fracking industry areย among the factors that prompted citizens in Denton, Texas, to press for a ban on fracking. Earthworks released video taken with a FLIR camera inย Denton in the last month showing fumes at fracking industry sites, according toย Earthworks.


Flowback at an EagleRidge Energy site less then 300 feet from homes in Denton, TX. ยฉ2014 Julieย Dermansky

Denton Councilman Kevin Roden, who supports banning fracking in Denton, points out that the boom in Denton is over and the city has little to show for it. The Post Carbon Instituteโ€™s report proves him right. Extraction rates for natural gas in the Barnett Shale (whichย lies below Denton) are inย decline.

But the industry’s inflated predictions have put pressure on politicians to relax restrictions on the existing ban on the export of crude oil. The Producers for American Crude Exports, aย coalitionย of oil companies,ย isย fightingย to end the four-decade ban on crudeย exports.

Gulf Coast Oil reserves are at record highs and there is a surplus of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Proposals to allow exports are on the table inย Washington.ย 

โ€œPlanned LNG exports, possible crude oil exports, repatriation of manufacturing, investments in gas-fired electricity generation and pipeline infrastructure, are all predicated on the assumption of cheap andย abundant oil and gas for the foreseeable future,โ€™โ€ the Post Carbon reportโ€™s author Hughes says. โ€œGetting it wrong on future tight oil and shale gas productionย comes with a high vulnerability on energy security and infrastructure investmentย issues.โ€

While forecasts made by the industry are looked at with skepticism, government projections have been readilyย accepted.

โ€œBased on our analysis, the reality is far different from what the industry is tellingย the Energy Department, and the Energy Department is, in turn, telling the public and the Congress,โ€ Asher Miller, executive director of the Post Carbon Institute,ย says.

With that in mind, the Post Carbon Instituteโ€™s independent analysis stands to become a game-changingย resource.ย 

Image credit: Two drilling rigs at a fracksite near Westdale, Louisiana in Haynesville Shale region. ยฉ 2014 Julie Dermanskyย forย Oceans 8ย Films

Julie-Dermansky-022
Julie Dermansky is a multimedia reporter and artist based in New Orleans. She is an affiliate scholar at Rutgers Universityโ€™s Center for the Study of Genocide and Human Rights. Visit her website at www.jsdart.com.

Related Posts

on

DeSmog estimates raise questions over climate benefits as EU officials consider whether the technology should qualify for billions of euros in subsidies.

DeSmog estimates raise questions over climate benefits as EU officials consider whether the technology should qualify for billions of euros in subsidies.
Analysis
on

Experts accuse Farageโ€™s party of a โ€˜deliberate campaign of misinformation about climate changeโ€™ in the House of Commons.

Experts accuse Farageโ€™s party of a โ€˜deliberate campaign of misinformation about climate changeโ€™ in the House of Commons.
on

A Conservative peer and former UK trade advisor were among those who spoke at the summit.

A Conservative peer and former UK trade advisor were among those who spoke at the summit.
on

All Conservative appointees to the Board of Trade have been binned by the new Labour government.

All Conservative appointees to the Board of Trade have been binned by the new Labour government.