It Was Hot in 2016 And It Will Be Almost As Hot Again Next Year

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If youโ€™re thinking it has been an abnormally warm December, youโ€™re notย alone.

This year has surpassed all modern records. You were more likely to have a BBQ in your backyard than snow angels on Christmas Day across many parts of Britain which experienced one of the warmest Christmasses onย record.

And the UKโ€™s Met office predicts that 2017 will keep in the trend of the last few years, with the global average temperature for next year expected to be between 0.63ยฐC and 0.87ยฐC above the long-termย average.

โ€œThis forecast, which uses the new Met Office supercomputer, adds weight to our earlier prediction that 2017 will be very warm globally but is unlikely to exceed 2015 and 2016: the two warmest years on record since 1850,โ€ said the Met Officeโ€™s Professor Adamย Scaife.

The forecast for 2017 is placed slightly below that of 2016, as El Niรฑo โ€“ an irregular weather cycle that brings warm water in the Pacific Ocean to the Americas โ€“ wonโ€™t apply this coming year. The forecast doesnโ€™t, however, take into account phenomenal events such as large volcanic eruptions, which can cause temporaryย effects.

Climate deniers have already jumped at the opportunity to comment on the fractionally cooler forecast for 2017 as proof that climate change is aย hoax.

But Professor Chris Folland, from the Met Office, says El Nino is only responsible for a fraction of the warming, with emissions from burning fossil fuels continuing to be the mainย driver.

โ€œEl Niรฑo only accounts for 0.2ยฐC of the global mean temperature rise for 2016. When compared with the long-term average between 1961 and 1990, increasing greenhouse gases are the main cause of warming since pre-industrial times,โ€ heย said.

And in the UK weโ€™re seeing nature responding to these changes, Richard Betts, Climate Research Fellow at the Met Office, told DeSmog UK.

โ€œSigns of spring leaves emerging, migrating birds, [are] coming earlier now than they used to. You canโ€™t say what event would not have happened without climate change but what you can say is whether it has become more likely,โ€ heย said.

Local temperature changes can also have a significant impact on what people think about climate change.

A new study shows that people are more or less likely to think climate change is happening depending on how often theyโ€™ve experienced higher or lower than average temperatures. That has implications for trying to persuade people to act on climateย change.

โ€œWhen personal experience and expert opinion donโ€™t align on a topic thatโ€™s not critical to an individualโ€™s well-being, theyโ€™re going to go with their gut rather than what the expert tells them,โ€ said Robert Kaufmann, the studyโ€™s lead author in Scientificย American.

The record Christmas temperatures in the UK come a year after the historic Paris Climate Agreement wasย signed.

It was ratified by 118 countries ahead of the United Nationโ€™s COP22 in Marrakech in November 2016, where nations reinforced their pledges to keep the worldโ€™s average temperature increase under 2ยฐC ofย warming.

There is little time to spare. A study published in Nature earlier this year showed the window for avoiding 1.5C of warming had practicallyย โ€œclosedโ€.

That means nations must significantly ramp up their efforts, and fast, if they are to meet their climate pledges forย 2020.

Photo: Alison Rawson via Geography CCย 2.0

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