Bangladesh: Devastating Present, Worse Future?

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It is certainly only coincidence that two recent eventsโ€“the deadly Category 4 landfall of Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh and the release of the UN IPCC‘s 2007 synthesis reportโ€“have so closely coincided.

But if we take them togetherโ€“the story of pain and grief in a low-lying region on the one hand; the careful words of scientists on the otherโ€“it seems impossible not to attempt a still granderย synthesis.

First, the hurricane. Cyclone Sidr, a Category 4 and possibly a Category 5 storm, thundered up the Bay of Bengal last week and made landfall with a devastating storm surge that exceeded twenty feet in some places. Hundreds of thousands have been killed in similar storms in this region, where the shape of the Bay, the low-lying topography, and the densely packed and poverty-stricken population all help set the stage for uniquely murderous cycloneย disasters.

Amazing as it is to say it, everyone who knows anything about the vulnerability of Bangladesh is actually relieved to learn that the death toll from Sidr may not exceed 10,000. This is seen as progress, especially in comparison with storms in 1991 and 1970 that killed, respectively, 130,000 and 300,000-500,000ย people.

And yet still, the devastation is almost unimaginable. Millions need food and homes. Entire towns have been obliterated. Crops have been ruined. Endangered speciesโ€“the rare Bengal Tigersโ€“were also perhaps killed in large numbers. And this is not a worst case scenarioโ€“the storm did not arrive at high tide, and its most powerful winds and sea surge actually struck a largely uninhabitedย area.

Now over to the IPCC: If nothing else, its latest report compels us to contemplate what will happen to a place like Bangladesh in the future. The first and most obvious outcome? Inexorable sea level rise. No one knows precisely how much how fast, of course, but the latest IPCC report says we can expect perhaps a few feet by 2100, and after thatโ€ฆwell, if in the long term we lose the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets, all bets areย off.

So poor Bangladesh, which is already incredibly flood prone, already highly exposed to devastation from the seaโ€“the Economist recently called the country a โ€œheinously overcrowded patch of deltaโ€โ€“will only face a worse situation in the future. If sea level rise becomes too dramatic, massive populationsโ€“millions of peopleโ€“may have to migrate furtherย inland.

And even if we only get slow and steady sea level riseโ€“and merely the monotonous reclamation of land where people once livedโ€“that still means every future tropical cyclone that strikes Bangladesh will surf atop higher seas in the Bay of Bengal on its way towards landfall and battering the country with a wall of water. Rerun Cyclone Sidr in ten years, in twenty years, in fifty years. The sea keeps penetrating farther and fartherย inland.

And what of the storms themselves? Here, the evidence is more ambiguous, but it’s hard not to notice that the North Indian Ocean basinโ€“which comprises both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Seaโ€“has had a record year of devastation in 2007. In June we saw the strongest storm ever observed in the Arabian Seaโ€“Cyclone Gonu, a Category 5. Sidr, meanwhile, is the second strongest known landfalling hurricane inย Bangladesh.

That’s right: Few strong hurricanes may have affected the United States lately, but in the Indian Ocean, they have really been on theย rampage.

Scientists fully expect hurricanes to become more intense on average in the future, though they can’t yet say how storm numbers might correspondingly change, or whether the regions affected might also shift in some way. Certainly there is a high level of scientific uncertainty surrounding the global warming-hurricane relationship. But for Bangladesh, already facing devastating sea level rise, the possible addition of any added strength to hurricanes certainly doesn’t help matters. Isn’t it bad enoughย already?

But then one could also write that last bit in another way: But for Bangladesh, already facing devastating cyclones, the possible addition of any sea level rise due to global warming certainly doesn’t help matters. Isn’t it bad enoughย already?

Yes, bad enough it certainly is. So now’s the time to send Bangladesh your aidโ€“for inspiration, watch this videoโ€“but it’s only a short reprieve from lobbying once again for change on climateย change.

The argument just keeps gettingย stronger.

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