Global warming is likely to overshoot a 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) rise seen by many as a trigger for “dangerous” change, a Reuters poll of scientists showed on Tuesday.

Nine of 11 experts, who were among authors of the final summary by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 (IPCC), also said the evidence that mankind was to blame for climate change had grown stronger in the past two years. Six of the scientists said world average annual temperatures would set a new record by 2015 – and another four projected that it would happen by 2020 – dismissing views from skeptics that global warming has stopped.