Extreme Weather Events Becoming More Common, Study Shows

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Extreme weather anomalies are increasing more than the global average temperature, shows new research by the University of East Anglia (UEA), University of Delaware and Indianaย University.

โ€œTrends in extreme heat and cold are important because they have a large impact on water supplies, agriculture productivity and other factors related to human health and wellbeing,โ€ said Professor Phil Jones from UEAโ€™s climatic researchย unit.

โ€œAverage temperatures donโ€™t tell us everything we need to know about climate change,โ€ he continued. โ€œArguably, these cold extremes and warm extremes are the most important factors for human society.โ€

Warmย Anomalies

The study shows that over the past 30 years warm anomalies have increased faster than coldย anomalies.

The findings come a week after data from the Met Office predicted that 2014 will be the warmest year both globally and in the UK.

Using monthly average temperatures from different points across the globe, the researchers determined spatial patterns of changes in extremes; this was done using temperature records from 1881 to 2013 from the global HadCRUT4 dataย set.

Not everything can be explained by simply analysing the global average temperature argued Jones. Itโ€™s like salaries, he said. Some people may receive the average wage but far more doย not.

โ€œThe average global temperature is exactly what it says โ€“ the average of everywhere at the planetโ€™s surface,โ€ he told DeSmog UK.

โ€œExtremes are what impact people, from heatwaves in summer to cold Arctic blasts in the winter. They are all regional-to-localย scale.โ€

โ€œReconciling local and global scale changes is difficult. Some places appear to follow the global average for short periods but not always,โ€ heย continued.

For example, as the Met study shows, both the global average and British temperatures have been high thisย year.

On the other hand, America has seen a couple of very cold winters recently. โ€œItโ€™s been one of the few areas thatโ€™s been colder than normal, mostly everywhereโ€™s been warmer,โ€ said Jones, who points out that the US only makes up 2 per cent of the Earthโ€™sย surface.

โ€œPeople put too much emphasis on the global average, and they also put too much emphasis on the temperatures where they liveโ€ฆ The issue is you canโ€™t understand global warming without looking at temperatures everywhere. You canโ€™t just look at them in oneย place.โ€

Northernย Hemisphere

The study found that temperatures are considerably more volatile in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere. This is because there is more land mass in the north, which causes greaterย variability.

Looking at temperature anomalies during the pause in global warming, which scientists have observed since 1998, the researchers found that warming has in fact continued for most locations on theย planet.

However, average warming has been offset by strong cooling during winter months โ€“ January and February โ€“ in the northernย hemisphere.

โ€œThere really hasnโ€™t been a pause in global warming,โ€ said lead researcher, Professor Scott Robeson from Indiana University in the US. โ€œThere has been a pause in northern hemisphere winterย warming.โ€

@kylamandel

Photo: Juliancolton viaย Wikimedia

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Kyla is a freelance writer and editor with work appearing in the New York Times, National Geographic, HuffPost, Mother Jones, and Outside. She is also a member of the Society for Environmental Journalists.

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