Peabody's Outlier Gang Couldn't Shoot Straight In Minnesota Carbon Case, Judge Rebuffs Happer, Lindzen, Spencer, Mendelsohn, Bezdek

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Overview
Onย 04/13/15,ย Peabody Energy followed other major coal companies into bankruptcy, andย days later lost a battleย in a landmark legal war on Minnesota’s Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). ย The โ€œbestโ€ gang1ย of climate denial outliers they could hireย tried toย confuse the court with absurd claims in bothย science and economics.ย The Judge was not fooled, and ruled unambiguously, as reportedย byย Bloomberg BNA,ย University of Minnesota Consortium on Law and Valuesย and MPRNEWS:
Updated climate change costs make coal-fired power less attractive:

โ€œState law already requires Minnesota account for climate change costs when deciding how to generate electricity. But an administrative law judge says the price range Minnesota uses is way too low – by a factor of more than 10 – because it’s outdated and doesn’t fully account for health problems and other societal costs tied to climate change.ย If the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission agrees with the judge’s view, it could mean wind and solar will look a lot cheaper than burning coalโ€ฆ. On Friday, Administrative Law Judge LauraSue Schlatter mostly agreed the federal government’s social cost of carbon figures were the way to go and suggested the state PUC adopt a new price range โ€” from about $11 to $57 per ton of carbon emitted. The previous range was about 50 cents to less thanย $5.โ€

Scientist and witness John P. Abraham explainedย Peabody coal’s contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case.
Dana Nuccitelli followed with more detail inย Coal made its best case against climate change, and lost.
These just scratch the surface of a major case with 19 witnesses and ~550 documents. The volume of recorded nonsense is too large to cover in a post, so key testimonies are annotated for any who want to assess witnessย credibility.

Often citing dubious or mis-used sources in both science and economics, Peabody’s fossil gang couldn’t shoot straight.
Opposing witness could and did, and the judge saw that.ย ALJ Schlatter’s crisp 150p FINDINGS OF FACT, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: CARBON DIOXIDE VALUESย isย annotated inย Findings.2ย As withย Minnesota’s tobacco lawsuitย or Pennsylvania’sย Kitzmiller v Dover, this may create a landmark referenceable by inevitable later cases.
It reveals instructive patterns of Peabody’s claims and tactics, strongly rebuffed by the ALJ. ย Itย started:

p.10 โ€œOn October 9, 2013, โ€ฆ the environmental organizations recommended that the Commission adopt the federal governmentโ€™s Social Cost of Carbon as the cost value for CO2.โ€
The Federal SCC (FSCC) is developed and updated by the Inter-agencies Working Group (IWG), but the MN PUC wanted aย contested case to build a record of evidence andย arguments.

Involved parties, sponsored witnesses,ย ย Findings p.1, pp.9-10, pp.140-144.ย Direct witnessesย Bold, science-focused Italic.ย 
Although supposedly about economics, Peabody started by attacking mainstream science, even claiming fossil:CO2 in doubt.
Peabody:ย Peabody Energy: Willย Happer, Richard Lindzen, Roy Spencer, Robert Mendelsohn, Roger Bezdek.
Richard S.J. Tol was added to buttress economicsย and William Weckerย to rebut Martin,ย but neither had muchย impact.

Peabody’sย scientists3 threw poorly-sourced, outlier and evenย absurd argumentsย against mainstream science, yet another example of attacking science to avoid unwanted policy.ย They neededย to helpย theirย economists claim that Minnesota’s SCC should be zero, negative or lower than current Minnesota values, all outliers in mainstream economics.ย ย 

None of Peabody’s witnesses were based in Minnesota, but theyย denigrated the expertise of Martin, Polasky and Hanemann, and repeatedly tried to exclude witnesses and testimony, with little success.ย ย 

The blue groups started with 2 National Academy economists, who assumedย mainstream science, thenย argued that the FSCC was a reasonable methology, with no better available, and would improve, while acknowledging imperfections.
Peabody’s witnesses attacked science, so theย blue side added scientists to rebut them.

CEOs:ย Clean Energy Organizations: ย Stephenย Polasky, John Abraham, Andrew Dessler. Peter Reich for (sur)rebuttals.
Agencies:ย MN Dept of Commerce, Div of Energy Resources (DOC DER) and MPCA: Michaelย Hanneman,ย Kevin Gurney
DHE:ย Doctors for a Healthy Environment: Rom
CEBC:ย Clean Energy Business Coalition: Rumery,ย Kunkle

Finally, Minnesota groups employedย economists who argued against the FSCC, generally without attacking science:
Utilities:ย Great River Energy (GRE), Minnesota Power Company, Otter Tail Power: Anneย Smith
MLIG:ย Minnesota Large Industrial Group: Anneย Smithย and Tedย Gayer
Xcel:ย ย Northern States Power Company, d/b/a Xcel ย Energy: Nickย Martin, whoย disagreed with some parts of the FSCC methodology, but his proposal overlapped with it.ย He got criticized by many, but the ALJ singled him out for credibleย work.

The 89p Issues Matrixย organized pro- and con- arguments under each of 31 separate issues, easier to digest than thousands of pages of testimony, ย An annotated copy is attached here asย Issues,ย cross-referenced wtihย Findings.

Science Arguments – Peabody Rejected by ALJ – see below for the essence of flawed arguments
In Findings pp.18-31,ย the ALJ covered science arguments, simple by comparison with the economics.
She summarizedย Peabody’s positions, and then ruled strongly followingย the blue groups’ defense ofย science:

p.18 โ€œPeabody asserted that significant climate change is not occurring or, to the extent climate change is occurring, it is not due to anthropogenic causes. Furthermore, Peabody insisted that any current warming and increased CO2 in the Earthโ€™s atmosphere are beneficial. Based on its position on climate change, Peabody maintained that theย externality value of CO2 would most accurately be set at or below zero.โ€ฆโ€

p.31 โ€œThe Administrative Law Judge concludes that Peabody Energy has failed to demonstrate, by a preponderance of the evidence, that climate change is not occurring or, to the extent climate change is occurring, the warming and increased CO2 in the Earthโ€™s atmosphere are beneficial.โ€ย 

Economics Arguments – ย much longer and more difficult, but ALJ (mostly) accepted the FSCC, not Peabody or others.
The Agencies, CEOs and DHE supported use of the Federal SCC, but thought it was understated, thus conservative.
Peabody rejected it, as did Minnesota parties, but their proposals often conflicted. ย Long discussion led to clearย rulings:

p.124 โ€œThe Administrative Law Judge concludes that, based on unreported and underreported health and environmental impacts, along with the IWGโ€™s acknowledgement that the FSCC is not based on the most current research, the preponderance of the evidence demonstrates that the FSCC understates the full environmental cost of CO2.โ€

p.131 โ€œโ€ฆconcludes that the Agencies and the CEOsย demonstrated by a preponderance of the evidence that the Federal Social Cost of Carbon is reasonable and the best available measure to determine the environmental cost of CO2,ย with the exceptions described in these findings regarding the 95th percentile and the time modelingย horizon.โ€

There is rough overlap of Xcel, FSCC, major oil companies’and Climate Casino(2013),ย  by WIlliam Nordhaus, orginator of DICE. Mendelsohn cited that book and used DICE, but got radically different results by choosing rather unusual parameters.
MLIG and Utilities proposed low outliers, and Peabody’s numbers were even furtherย outliers, and inconsistent besides.3
Sheet SCC explains the derivation of more-or-less commensurate numbers, not alwaysย obvious.

SOcial Cost of Carbon comparisons

Peabody’s gang that couldn’t shoot straight, outlier claims explicitly rejected, tactics deprecated by the ALJ
The ALJ‘s Findings are strong evidence of the gang’s credibility problems.4 ย After summarizing Peabody’s claims, she condensedย 19p of S.Gurneyย (Surrebuttal),ย aย fine exposition ofย familiar patterns of bad arguments, further excerptedย here:

pp.101-104 ย Gurney gave many examples of the myriads in the testimonies, a few more are shown later.
‘Agencies claimed Peabodyโ€™s witnesses used a pattern of argumentsย that relied on four patterns of biasedย or flawed reasoning.
The first pattern is the use ofย selective citationย or โ€œcherry-pickingโ€ information to support a predisposed conclusion.ย The selective citation process has two variations:ย non-peer-reviewedย literature andย narrowย citationโ€ฆ.
The second of four patterns of arguing and reasoning โ€ฆ was toย misunderstand the scienceย or cited literatureโ€ฆ.
The Agencies provided examples of the third misleading pattern โ€ฆ, which they called โ€œstraw manย argument.โ€ โ€ฆ
The fourth pattern used by Peabodyโ€™s witnesses is known as โ€œattacking the messenger‘ โ€ฆ 4

The CEOs alleged, and provided examples to establish, that Peabodyโ€™s witnesses relied onย non-peer-reviewedย information. โ€ž,
The CEOs addressed a number of Peabodyโ€™s claims in which the CEOsย stated Peabodyย misrepresented or misinterpretedย climate science. โ€ฆ
CEOs discussed the claim that 97 percent of the worldโ€™s climate scientists agree that humans are causing climate change and many independent studiesย have provided compelling evidence that there is a โ€œvery strong consensus among scientistsโ€ on this point. ย The CEOs maintained thatย Peabodyโ€™s views on climateย changeย areย far outside the mainstreamย scientific understanding and ignore the bulk of the evidence. โ€ฆ

DHE criticized Peabody for relying on information almost entirely based onย industry-funded reports that are not peer-reviewedย by the medical or public health community.ย DHE specifically criticized a bibliography of articles attached to the testimony of Peabodyโ€™s witness, Dr. Bezdek, used to support the claim that โ€œhumans would flourish in a warmer climate.โ€’ย ย 

Findingsย pp.141-142ย list Peabody’s expert witnesses, all but Wecker involved in various ways with one or more of:
CO2 Coalitionย (tax-exempt 501(c)(3) โ€œcharityโ€ย rebranded part of the George Marshall Institute),ย Heartland Instituteย or
Global Warming Policy Foundationย (GWPF) in UK, but well connected, as perย FOIA Facts 5 – Finds Friends Of GWPF.
As shown later, many have given talks at Heartland conferences, or have formal Affiliations with these groups.
Although Peabody witnesses provided long Curricula Vitae (CVs), these importantย associations seemed to beย omitted.

For example, although far more relevant than his research in atomic physicis,ย Happer’sย CO2 Coalitionย is unmentioned,ย but he asked that his fee be โ€œdonatedโ€ to it, as he did in the โ€œstingโ€ operation where he was willing to write more.ย 
Bezdek and Wecker run consultancies and plausibly got paid, but by comparison, a โ€œcharityโ€ has advantages for Happer:
– Peabody gets a tax break on โ€œdonationโ€ to a โ€œpublic charityโ€ which seems to provide experts for hire
– Happer can correctlly say he did ย not get paid by a coal company,ย and of course would not report it as personal income
– He still controls the funds, can use it for expenses, for example, for visiting Washington to testify for Senator Cruz.
– Had he not admitted it, we would likely never be sure, since such think tanks rarely discloseย โ€œdonorsโ€

Case has ~550 documents, probably ~9,000 pages, of which ~2,600 are annotated and attached here
Sheet 14-463ย  is an annotated extract from theย MN case database, re-sorted by Date and then Document ID.
The ALJ‘s phase of this case is complete, so it goes to the PUC. ย The sequence was:
Witnesses: Direct testimony => Rebuttals => Surrebuttals (eplies to Rebuttals) => Hearings.
Parties: consolidatedย Issues Matrix, then each filedย Initial Briefs, Reply Briefs and (annotated here)ย Proposed Findings.
ALJ: wrote her Findings,ย but the parties got several chances to respond. The blue groups were relatively happy.
Parties: filed ย EXceptions,ย ย and thenย Replies to Exceptions, except Peabody, which filed nothing after theย Findings.

Did Peabody realize the best gang of hired guns they could find had shot blanks in all directions?
Did they just want to save money, since after all, Peabody had just enteredย bankruptcy?
Or didย they just expect to wait for the PUC and file appeals? ย There is no way to know until we see whatย happens.

Table 1 – Chronology of documents, parties, surname initials of witnesses; testimony details in Table 2
All documents at Minnesota eDockets for 14-463. ย Warning: if ย get session timeout message, just click again on URL.
Document ย 2015 Doc ID Peabody Utilities MLIG Xcel CEOs Agencies DHE CEBC
Directย  06/01 20156 HLSย MB S SG M P H
Rebuttal 08/12 20158 HLSย MBTW S S- M PAD HG R RK
Surrebuttalย  09/10 20159 HLSย MB S SG M PADR โ€“G
OAH rulings on motions to exclude testimony 09/15 20159 113992-01 Strike Polasky, Haneman and part of Martin testimony ย DENIED
09/15 20159 113998-01 Exclude Rumery & Kunkle DENIED 113998-01 vs Happer partial4
09/21 20159 114135-01 Exclude some Abraham, Dessler and Gurney: DENIED. vs Reich (with MLIG) small partial
Hearings, 09/24-30 201510 HLSย M S S- M PADR HG R R
Issues Matrix 11/12 201511 115671-01ย ย 89p ย  All parties, ย  ย  ย  ย Issues is annotated copy attached here
IBย Initial Briefs 11/24 201511 115936-01 115929-01 115937-01 115933-01 115935-01 115999-01 115928-02
RBย Reply Brief 12/15 201512 116631-02 116522-02 116526-02 116504-01 116527-02 116502-01 116495-02 116528-01
PFย Proposd Findings 12/15 201512 116525-02 116522-03 116526-03 116504-01 116529-01 116500-1,ย -03
Annotated,ย key documents->IM>Findings PF.Peabody PF.Utilities PF.MLIG PF.Xcel PF.CEOs PF.Agencies, Att
IMย Comment 12/18 201512ย  116525-03 116522-04 ย  Peabody objected to โ€œphantomโ€ evidence. ALJ obviously disagreed.
ALJ Findings, etc 04/15/16 20164 120145-01 ย  150p Findings is annotated copy attached here
EXceptions 05/05/16 20165 None 121082-01 121090-01 121088-01 121089-01 121084-01
Exceptionย Replies 05/15/16 20165 None 121392-01 121396-01 121395-01 121398-01 121400-01 ย  <- See CEOs pp.18-20

Table 2 shows witnesses andย testimonies, either at MN eDockets. ย Uppercase codes link to annotated copies here.
Read testimonies down to see everything t a given stage, or across to see those by any one witness.
No attempt was made to analyzeย the 90+ Hearings documents or get the transcripts, but everything was consolidated into the IB, RB, and especially ย PF stages. Despite his voluminous written testimony,ย Bezdek was not included in oral Hearing.
Relevant corrections are included, and Italic purple is explained in Tableย 3.

Peabody-sponsored witnesses, some fees known. ย With bankruptcy, maybe more ? ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย ย $Pay: Greenpeaceย 
ย  ย  ย  All but Wecker have DeSmog profiles, linked. ย (A|t) Involved withย CO2Coalition,ย Heartland,ย GWPFย > C H G D R S H $Pay
NJ Dr. Will Happer:ย (emeritus)ย Prof Physics (atomic) Princeton U; Member NAS ย  ย  ย  ย  ย 
CO2Co President;ย GWPF Advisor.ย Coal+OIL: ย Heartland ICCC-10;ย 
OIL: GMI Chairman ; ย December 2015 sting. ย Coal: Peabodyย 2015 MN ย hearing. ย  ย  ย D: pp.76-105ย 
A t A D R

c

S * $8000
donate
CO2Co
MA Dr. Richard Lindzen:ย (emeritus) Prof Meteorology, MITNAS ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย ย 
CO2Co Advisor;ย GWPF Advisor. ย Coal+OIL: Heartland ICCCโ€“2, -3, -4;ย 
Coalย : Western Fuels Association 1991 video, 1995 MN Hearing2015 MNย 
OIL: 1992 Vienna OPEC, also via Annapolis Center, GMI. ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย D: pp.22-76
A A A R S * no answer
AL Dr. Roy Spencer:ย Principal Res Scientist U of Alabama Huntsville;ย CO2Co Advisor. ย  ย ย D: pp.1-21
Coal+OIL: Heartland ICCC-1,ย -2, -3, -4, -6, ย -9, -10;ย Coal:ย Peabodyย MN 2015
Scientific Perspectives on the Greenhouse Problem(1990)ย Ch.7;

The Bad Science and Bad Policy of Obamaโ€™s Global Warming Agenda(2010)Climate Confusion:How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies That Hurt the Poor(2010)ย The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the Worldโ€™s Top Climate Scientistsย (2012). Such might not help science credibility.
A A R S * $4000
CT Dr. Robert Mendelsohn: Professor, Forestry & Environmental Studies, Economics, Yale U;
Coal+OIL:ย Heartland ICCC-6GWPF Advisor;ย Peabodyย 2015 MNย ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย  ย D: pp.106-173
t A R S * no answer
VA Dr. Roger Bezdek: Consulting economist; ย Pres. Management Information Services.
Has written a few articles for Heartland: ย Coal:~keep coalย &ย social benefits of carbon.
OIL: World Oil (Contrib Ed),ย CFACTCO2 Benefits Exceed Costs by โ€ฆ50:1โ€ฆย with Paul Driessen
t D R S not asked
UK Dr. Richard S.J. Tol: Prof. Economics, U of Sussex; GWPF Advisor; โ€œClimate Hustleโ€ (CFACT). Richard Tol Dons Cloak of Climate DenialThe Tol Controversyย byย Frank Ackerman A whole fleet of gremlins: Looking more carefully at Richard Tolโ€™s twice-corrected paper, โ€œThe Economic Effects of Climate Changeโ€ย by Columbia U Statisticcs ProfessorAndrew Gelman.
Richard Tol on climate policy -A critical view of an overviewย (07/21/14) by Frank Ackerman
Itโ€™s settled: 90โ€“100% of climate experts agree on human-caused global warming,ย reply to Tol
A R

r

zero
(likely)
ย 
WY Dr. William Weckerย Pres.William E. Wecker AssociatesstatisticsGolden Holocaust(2012) p.441;
Search Truth Tobacco Industry Documents for Wecker, many hits. ย p.53 $395-$450/hr
r not asked
Economics witnesses sponsored by Utilities, MLIG, Xcel D R S H Sponsor
DC Dr. Anne Smith:ย economist and Senior Vice President at NERA Economic Consulting d r s * UTILS
DC Dr. Ted Gayer: VP & Dir Economic Studies Program, Brookings Instititution d s MLIG
MN Mr. Nicholas Martin:ย Environmental Policy Manager for Xcel Energy Services d r s * Xcel
Science and economics witnesses sponsored by CEOs, DHE, Agencies. ย  D R S H Sponsor
MN Dr. Stephen Polasky:Regents Prof Ecological/Environmental Economics,U MNMember NAS D R S * CEOs
AZ Dr. Michael Hanemann: Prof. Economics, Sustainability, Arizona State U;ย Member NAS D R S * Agencies
MN Dr. John Abraham: Professor of Thermal Sciences, U of St Thomas, St. Paul R S * CEOs
TX Dr. Andrew Dessler: Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&Mย  R S * CEOs
AZ Dr. Kevin Gurney: Assoc Prof, School of Life Sciences, atmospheric/ecology Arizona State U S corrย 3 R S * Agencies
NY Dr. William N. Rom: Physician, Professor of Medicine and Environmental Medicine, NY R * DHE
DC Mr, Shawn Rumery:ย Director of Research, Solar Energy Industries Associationย  r CEBC
MN Mr. Christopher Kunkle:ย Regional Policy Manager for Wind on the Wiresย  r * CEBC
MN Dr. Peter Reich:ย Regents Professor, Endowed Chair in Forest Resources, U Minn S * CEOs

Table 3 follows flows of arguments. ย Rebuttals generally respond to one or more Directs, and Surrebuttals to Rebuttals.
To trace arguments, pick a column with D(R) atย top, then find the R(S) in that column to identify those who responded, and use the links above to find the comments. For example, Happer’s Direct drew 4 Rebuttals, and he Rebutted (and denigrated the competence of) 3 Direct witnesses. His Rebuttal drew 3 Surrebuttals, and his Surrebuttalย commented on 5 Rebuttals. ย The list is slightly reordered from Findings to match the order of appearance by D, R,ย S.

Table 3 – Testimony responses – Directs (Rebuttals), Rebuttals (Surrebutals)
Purple Italic Underlined==> witness at left denigrated qualifications of witnesses above; ALJ obviously did not agree.
Hap Lin Spe Men Bez Tol Wec Smi Gay Mar Pol Han Abr Des Gur Rom Rum Kun Rei 19
D R D R D R D R D R R R D R D D R D R D R R R- R R R R 27
Happer R R S R S S S S 8
Lindzen R R R S S S 6
Spencer R R R S S 5
Mendelsohn R R S R S 5
Bezdek R S R S R S S S S 9
Tol R R 2
Wecker r 1
Smith r s s s 4
Gayer s s s 3
Martin r s r s s r s r s r s 11
Polasky R S R S R S R R S 9
Haneman R S R S R S R R S 9
Abraham R S R S R S R S S 9
Dessler R S R S R S S 7
Gurney R S R S R S 6
Rom R R R 3
Rumery r 1
Kunkle r 1
Reich S S 1
19 4 3 4 3 2 2 3 4 8 4 4 1 3 3 2 9 5 7 6 7 6 4 4 3 <- # Responsesย 

This gang couldn’t shoot straight, and some testimony was simply ludicrous, but apparently Peabody could hire no better. They needed to make a whole sequence of outlier claims to create benefits from CO2 in sectionย 6,

Mainstream views versus Peabody
ย 1ย  Fossil fuels are major cause of CO2 increase Open to question (Lindzen)
ย 2 Earth is warming Has not warmed since 1998
ย 3 Surface temperature record most accurate (as Carl Mears of RSS says) Satelites best, surface wrong, UHI (Spencer)
ย 4 Climate models useful, when properly understood Climate models all wrong
ย 5 Climate Sensitivity to 2X CO2 ย (CS) 1.5-4.5C, best guess ~3C .5-1.5C (Happer), .85-1.5C (Lindzen)
ย 6 CO2 fertilization (greening) real, but total effects negative for farming, forests Farming $$ from greening dwarfs all else
ย 7 Other effects of warming, acidification mostly negative, some very negative No problem
ย 8 Strong consensus within science No consensus
ย 9 Economic danage already happening, more committed even at current temp No damage until 1.5-2C (Mendelsohn)

For a few examples, weย find:

1.ย D.Lindzen p.29, Rebutted in R.Gurney pp.11-12 (or see CO2 lags temperatureย at Skepticalย Science.)

โ€œEven the connection of fossil fuel emissions to atmospheric CO2ย ย levels is open to question. In the ice core records of the ice ages, itย appears that CO2 levels may follow temperature increases, rather thanย viceย versa.โ€

3. R.Happerย p.7 had cited a piece by Joseph D’Aleo and Anthony Watts, at SPPI blog, butย stricken:

Stricken from Happer

This is a tiny sample of the outlier nonsense by Peabody’s gang. ย Feel free to check the legal documents, their annotations, and the responses by the impressive witnesses for the blueย groups.

Peabody’s gang simply couldn’t shoot straight, and then Peabody did not even file Exceptions to the ALJ‘sย Findings.


1ย Gang:ย โ€œa group of persons working together.โ€ ย  There is no implication whatsoever of criminal activity in the usage here, but multiple associations appear in Tableย 2.

2ย Page numbers hereย use unambiguous PDF page #s, not printed ones. For example, Findings‘ first 8 pages are (blank), (blank), (blank), ii-vi, followed by (blank) and 2-142. ย  The 173p Direct 20156-111054-01ย has many duplicateย numbers.

3ย โ€œGive me a one-handed economist!ย All my economists say, On the one hand on the other.โ€ -President Harry Truman.
The economists necessarily offeredย combinations of different assumptions and policy choices, which created long discussions and arguments. ย Most were able to offer succinct summaries, but Peabody’s was at leastย three-handed.

4ย Peabody’s two Emeritus Professors were elected to the National Academy of Sciences,ย Happer(1996)ย forย atomic physicsย andย LIndzen(1977)ย ย for atmospheric physics done long ago.ย Happer has not published peer-reviewedย papers on climate, but his Rebuttalย R.Happer claimed:

ย โ€œI have reviewed written testimony by
Michael Hanemann
Nicholas Martin
Stephen Polasky
These witnesses lack adequate formal training in the physical sciences, physics,ย chemistry, meteorology, oceanography, biology or other areas needed to assess theย scientific performance of climate models. All the witnesses uncritically accept computerย ย model predictions of climate change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeย (IPCC). They discuss economic models built on these seriously flawed science models.ย ย Accordingly, their assessments of the social cost of carbon (SCC) are invalid for reasonsย already discussed in my testimony.
CO2 is not a pollutant
There can only be a social cost for carbon if more atmospheric CO2 is a negativeย externality, that is, if the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere does more harm than good.ย As I outlined in my testimony of June 1, 2015 โ€œBenefits of CO2,โ€ under current emissionsย ย projections more CO2 in the atmosphere will be a net benefit. The myth that more CO2 isย ย harmful comesย fromโ€ฆโ€

Likewise, in their Rebuttals, Mendelsohn and Tol denigrated the qualifications of Polasky and Haneman, but the evidence is fairly clear that the ALJ gave little weight to Peabody witness’ claims.ย Polasky’s Surrebuttal S.Polaskyย wryly noted,ย p.10:

โ€œQ. Is there anything else you want to say in response to Dr. Mendelsohn and Dr. Tolโ€™s questioning of your experience and expertise? ย A. I would also point out that both Dr. Hanemann and I have been elected into the National Academy of Sciences, while Drs. Mendelsohn and Tol have not.’ย ย 

5This case compared to previous case – 1993-1997 – Minnesota Social Cost of Carbon(SCC), Docket 93-583.
Docket 14-643ย already records 500+ documents, and is not done, asย Bloombergย notes:

โ€œCurrie said interested parties now have 20 days to file exceptions to the ALJ‘s recommendations. Opposing parties would then have 10 days to reply to the exceptions, she said. The PUC would then likely take up the recommendations one or two months after all the filings have been completed, sheย said.โ€

From earlier case, it will likely be 2017 before PUC rules.ย In 1993, the Minnesota legislature required that its Public Utility Commission (PUC) ย adopt an SCC, opposed by theย Western Fuels Association(WFA), whose โ€œexpert witnessesโ€ includedย Richard Lindzen,ย Frederick Seitz,ย Robert Balling Jr,ย Patrick Michaels, andย Keith Idso. ย They provided written testimony,18319ย andย 13820, and verbal testimony, about whichย Ross Gelbspan’sย The Heat Is On(1995)ย is a key source:
05/22/95 – Richard Lindzen ย (especially notable for confusion potential
05/23/95 – Richard Lindzen (cont), Pat Michaels; p.8 ย When asked, Lindzen explains WFA paid expenses for 1991 testimony
05/24/95 –ย Keith Idso and Robert C. Balling, Jr

On 03/25/96, the ALJย issued his findings, at same stage as ALJ Schlatter’s 04/15/16ย findings.

The PUC ruled on 01/03/97,ย 188374,ย replied to comments,ย 188425, and then affirmed/modified its rulings 07/02/97,ย 188276. WIth much less information than now available in 2016, the ALJ had recommended,ย 187175:ย 

p.33 โ€œIPCC reports are the most authoritative sources available for information onย climate change issues.โ€
p.38 โ€œOther parties have proposed thatย no value or that a zero valueย be set for carbon dioxode emissions on the basis that it is not practicable at this point in time to value CO2 emissions because existing data is insufficient or unreliable. ย This proposal is rejected.โ€ ย (Then he explains why) โ€ฆ ย โ€The Administrative Law Judge has concluded that the record containsย enough data to support a value for carbon dioxide, albeit a lesser value than manyย hadย sought.โ€

Either Peabody’ lawyers failed to study the earlier case or they just ignoredย it.

Update 06/14/16:ย Peabody Coal Bankruptcy Reveals Climate Denial Network Fundingย included as creditors Center for Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (whose theme is greening Earth), George Marshall Institute, Roy Spencer, Richard Lindzen. It is unknown if they were owed money for witnessing or somethingย else.

Update 07/03/16: add link for Docket 93-583, the previous case, plus links toย testimony.

Blog image credit: Cowboys by Leena Saarinenย via Flickr CC

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