What Does a Hung Parliament Mean for Energy and Climate Change Issues?

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Who saw that coming? Yeah, neither didย we.

The Conservatives will return to parliament with the most MPs of any party, but without an overall majority. The next few hours will see Theresa May scramble to try and find the votes she needs to form aย government.

Northern Irelandโ€™s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have already offered the support of their MPs. Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party have ruled out going into coalition with theย Conservatives.

Not much is known about the DUP‘s position on climate change, but the party did once appoint a climate science denier as environment secretary in the Northern Ireland assembly. And their 2017 election manifesto does not mention the words climate change orย environment.

Despite overall defeat, the result is being hailed as a victory for Labour, who started the election 20-points behind the Conservatives in the polls. If nothing else, the election has secured Jeremy Corbynโ€™s future as leader of the opposition โ€“ and possibly a minority government, should May fail to cobble together a workingย majority.

So, what does all this mean for climate and energy policy in the UK?

Hereโ€™s a breakdown of what we know soย far.

Brexit

One thing that seems clear is Theresa May no longer has a strong mandate for a hard Brexit. One way or another she will have to negotiate with the other parties to get thingsย done.

And perhaps itโ€™s here that some green gains could beย made.

One clue for where the environmental red-lines might fall could be in their manifestos. Hereโ€™s what each party had to say their pledge was specifically regarding Brexit and theย environment.

Conservatives: After we have left the European Union, we will form our energy policy based not on the way energy is generated but on the ends we desire โ€“ reliable and affordable energy, seizing the industrial opportunity that new technology presents and meeting our global commitments on climate changeโ€ฆwe will improve our environment as we leave the European Union and take control of our environmental legislation againโ€ฆ Protections given to consumers and the environment by EU law will continue to be available in UK law at the point at which we leave the EU.

Labour: Ensure there is no detrimental change toโ€ฆenvironmental protections as a result ofย Brexit.

SNP: SNP MPs will work to prevent the threat of Brexit being used by the UK to reduce commitments to tackle climate change or to undermine the European Unionโ€™s efforts to fight climate change and protect the environmentโ€ฆWe will defend the interests of environmental scientists from across the EU who contribute so much to the success of Scotlandโ€™s researchย institutes.

Lib Dems: The European Union has created the highest environmental standards in the world. We have a duty to future generations to protect our environment and tackle climate change. Liberal Democrats will ensure that everything is done to maintain those high standards in UK law, including the closest possible co-operation on climate and energy policyโ€ฆWhen the terms of our future relationship with the EU have been negotiatedโ€ฆwe will put that deal to a vote of the British people in a referendum, with the alternative option of staying in the EU on the ballotย paper.

Green Party: Ensure that existing environmental laws are retained, or enhanced, no matter our future relationship with the Europeanย Union.

So overall, as things move forward itโ€™s looking like it will be a lot harder for significant environmental deregulation to take place without a fight. Meaning staying strong on environmental policies could be an easy win for the opposingย parties.

Green Party leader Caroline Lucas has tweeted โ€œTo be clear, Greens will *never* support a Tory governmentย #HopeoverHateโ€.

In addition, both the Lib Dems and Labour have clear positions on maintaining strong environmental standards post Brexit.ย ย 

Brexit was scheduled to begin in two weeks time, whether this actually happens now is a big question mark. Or if it does start on time, things are likely to be a lot messier thanย before.

Either way, the Conservativesโ€™ failure to gain aย majority means May can no longer push through a hard Brexit deal without facing the other parties โ€“ inevitably to get anything done, be it sorting out a hung parliament or simply sorting out how the country leaves the EU, negotiations amongst the parties will be needed.ย ย 

Fracking

And what about fracking? The Conservatives were the only main party to support the growth of a British shaleย industry.

The election result leaves that pledge, as with all of the partyโ€™s manifesto promises, in theย balance.

Perhaps the most interesting result from a fracking perspective was Derbyshire North East, where the anti-fracking Conservative candidate Lee Rowley beat pro-fracking Labour incumbent Natascha Engel by just under 3,000ย votes.

INEOS has applied for planning permission for a drilling rig in the constituency to assess the siteโ€™s suitability for fracking. The companyโ€™s path may have become slightly more rocky with Rowley as MP, and the Conservative party short of an overallย majority.

Another constituency where INEOS is hoping to frack is Mansfield County, and that experienced the same result, with Conservative Ben Bradley beating Labour incumbent Alan Meale by just over 1,000ย votes.

INEOS has a license for shale gas exploration at the edge of Sherwood Forest in the constituency, within 200 metres of a symbolically important 1,000 year old tree linked to the Robin Hoodย folklore.

Unlike Derbyshire North East, the candidatesโ€™ positions followed their partiesโ€™ manifestos, with Bradley saying fracking was โ€œworth exploring in the veryย leastโ€.

In Fylde, the constituency on the frontline of the UKโ€™s efforts to prevent fracking, Conservative incumbent Mark Menzies was comfortably returned to parliament. Labour almost doubled its vote in the constituency, with Green party candidate and anti-fracking protester Tina Rothery receiving around 1,200ย votes.

The Northย Sea

Meanwhile it was a night of drama in Scotland, with some big names losing their seats and the Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon admitting she would have to reflect on mistakes made in the partyโ€™sย campaign.

That could have significant ramifications for the future of the North Sea oil and gasย industry.

The SNP doubled-down on its promise to bring back jobs to the industry. But it was up against a Conservative party that had promised further handouts to the industry, and promised to โ€œcontinue to support the industry and build on the unprecedented support already provided to the oil and gasย sectorโ€.

The SNPโ€™s energy and climate change spokesperson Callum McCaig lost his Aberdeen South seat to Conservative Ross Thomson by almost 5,000 votes. The Conservativeโ€™s share of the vote in the seat jumped by around 20 percent compared toย 2015.

SNP deputy leader Angus Robertson also lost his Moray seat to Conservative Douglas Ross by more than 4,000 votes. Ross had previously said that the oil industry continues to rely on Westminster for security as oil prices spike and dip โ€“ a relationship that he says the Conservatives are most suited toย protect.

In Orkney and Shetland, veteran Liberal Democrat Alistair Carmichael comfortably held on to a seat the SNP had beenย targeting.

Carmichael considers North Sea oil and gas to be of โ€œmassive strategic importance to the UK economyโ€, which will please the multiple big oil companies with projects in the constituency, from ExxonMobil toย Total.

The SNPโ€™s former leader Alex Salmond also lost his Gordon seat to the Conservatives, one of 13 seats the party won in Scotland. Labour also won seven seats in Scotland, largely at the SNPโ€™sย expense.

Climate Scienceย Deniers

It was a decent night for most of the UKโ€™s climate science deniers,ย however.

Shipleyโ€™s Philip Davies and Christchurchโ€™s Christopher Chope both retained their seats. They are now the only two MPs that voted against the Climate Change Act in 2008 left inย parliament.

Conservative David Nuttall lost his Bury North seat to Labourโ€™s James Frith, however. Nuttall signed a letter urging the government to delay signing the UKโ€™s fifth carbon budget last year. He also signed a letter in March accusing the BBC of bias in its Brexitย reporting.

Frith previously told DeSmog UK he is โ€œthe opposite to David Nuttall in many different ways and viewsโ€, including on energy and environmentalย issues.

โ€œClimate change is real, government efforts to date arenโ€™t enough but Labour has good history with Kyoto, emissions targets, carbon capture,โ€ he said. Frith also does not support fracking, and is in favour of economic incentives for renewable energyย projects.

Nuttall is the only MP with questionable views on climate science, or ties to a network of organisations that promote misinformation on the subject based out of 55 Tufton Street, to lose theirย seat.

That includes former environment secretary Owen Paterson, who comfortably won his North Shropshire seat. Patersonย once delivered theย GWPFโ€™s annual lecture, and was aย member of the Vote Leaveย campaign, which is based out of the headquarters of theย UKโ€™s climate science denial network atย 55 Tufton St.ย 

But there were some notable climate science deniers who steppedย down.

Conservative Bim Afolabi comfortably won the seat vacated by his party colleague and well-known climate science denier Peter Lilley. Gillian Keegan also held the Conservative safe seat vacated by Christopher Chope, who was one of only five MPs to vote against the Climate Changeย Act.

Conservative Giles Watling also took the Clacton seat from UKIP, where the climate science denying party previously had its only MP in Douglas Carswell (who stepped down thisย election).

Twoย MPs that areย very keen on the UK taking action to tackle climate change that managed to hold on to their seats were Green MP Caroline Lucas who won with an increased majority and Labour’sย Alan Whitehead in Southampton Test. His seat was declared lateย in the morning, and was oneย that confirmed UK voters would wake up to a hungย parliament.

Main image credit: Royal Opera House Covent Garden via Flickrย CC BYSAย 2.0

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