Lorne Gunther: Denial (and dumb analogies) are us

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In a wonderfully silly update of the (Canadian newspaper the) National Postโ€™s campaign of climate change denial, columnist Lorne Gunther (picked up here in the Edmonton Journal) argues that global warming has ended – and to prove it, he imagines the earth as an out-of-control Toyota which he decides has run out ofย gas.

What good fortune that might be (running out of gas in time to stop before you hit the cliff). But how can we think that our careering planetary heating system – which appears to have it its top speed and has been holding steady for more than a decade – is โ€œout of gasโ€ when weโ€™re pumping the stuff into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate?

Look, for example, at the graph to the right. This is a fuel guage for atmospheric CO2: weโ€™re not running out; weโ€™re toppingย up.

So, given that rudimentary physics demonstrates CO2 to be a greenhouse gas (which has the effect of holding on to more of the sunโ€™s radiative energy) and given that, by burning fossil fuels and cutting down trees, we are pouring more CO2 into the atmosphere every year, the best scientists in the world have postulated that global average temperatures will likely rise as aย result.

And whadaya know: global average temperatures have indeed been rising (per the graph below). The climb hasnโ€™t been quite as steady as the increase in CO2 because, as Gunther might agree, climate is complicated. For example, we also have to consider the influence of the sun, which was raging along in the latter part of the 20th century but has (again as Gunther notes) hit an unusually dead spotย lately.

Now, I know that the people who wish warming werenโ€™t real – or could be blamed on something else so we fossil fuel consumers could keep on keeping on – will reiterate Guntherโ€™s goofy argument that warming seems to have stalled. Regardless that nine of the hottest 10 years in recorded history have occurred since 2000, they want to believe that our Toyota is slowing safely, despite the stuckย accelerator.

But I invite you all to have a quick read of Bart Verheggenโ€™s great post on this issue. In addition to having pulled together clearer images of the graph at left, he has illustrated exactly how such graphs have been used to misrepresent theย science.

Then, before you get back behind the wheel of Guntherโ€™s imagined auto, consider this: knowing that the accelerator is sticky, is it prudent to keep your foot on the gas? Or would it be smarter to take the car in for a check-up – and not with a journalist or a gasoline salesman, but with someone who actually knows something aboutย cars?

If you choose the first option, please honk before you get behind the wheel. It will help the rest of us recognize that you are part of theย problem.

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