Number One Lesson *Not* To Take Away from Hurricane Irene

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I was watching CNN this morning. I donโ€™t know whyโ€”except that it was on in the gym at the hotel where Iโ€™mย staying.

Pretty soon, I was arguing with theย screen.

A narrative is developing in the media that Hurricane Irene was somehow โ€œoverhyped,โ€ that politicians โ€œcried wolf,โ€ and then the devastating damage that was forecast didnโ€™t appear. Piers Morgan, tonight, will supposedly head up a segment called โ€œHurricaneย Hype.โ€

Never mind that thereโ€™s more than enough disaster imagery to keep the cable news channels on the story 24-7. And never mind that the storm killed at least 27 people and has caused an estimated $ 7 billion in U.S.ย damage.

Nevertheless, somehow Irene still wasnโ€™t damaging enough, and so weโ€™re going to hear about how politicians were covering their $#^@, scaring people when they didnโ€™t haveย to.

Not only is this idioticโ€”itโ€™s downright dangerous.

Nobody can perfectly forecast how a storm is going to turn out or where it is going to goโ€”not even the experts. This storm clearly posed a very serious threat to New York, and while it certainly could have been worse, thatโ€™s precisely the point. We err on the side of caution. We warn people strenuously because to under-warn them would beย unforgivable.

Even worse, if this narrative about hurricane โ€œoverhypingโ€ takes hold, it could utterly distract from the real take-away from this storm experience. Namely: This was a test run for a much worse storm that will someday come and threaten New York. And the test run proved that weโ€™re not remotelyย ready.

The image Iโ€™ve posted above (largerย here) shows the cumulative tracks of all Atlantic hurricanes on record. As you can see, there is virtually no part of the East Coast that has not gotten hit at some time orย other.

New York will be hit again, and it will be hit worse. It is only a matter ofย time.

And while the city may have withstood Irene relatively well, it will not, with its current defenses, withstand a direct hit from a stronger storm with a bigger storm surge. And if that storm comes and New York isnโ€™t ready, we could have a scenario even worse thanย Katrina.

So while the journalists are talking about โ€œhype,โ€ hereโ€™s what we should actually beย discussing:

Seaย defenses.

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