Meet the Political Dynasty of Climate Science Deniers Threatening to Withdraw Brazil from the Paris Agreement

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By Megan Darby for Climate Homeย News

Presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaroย is threatening to take Brazil out of the Paris Agreement if he wins the Octoberย election.

In an unpredictable race, the right-wing Bolsonaro isย polling secondbehindย Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva, the socialist former president. But โ€œLulaโ€ is in jail for corruption and likely to beย disqualified by the courts, leaving a scatteredย field.

At hisย campaign launchย last month and inย subsequent interviews, Bolsonaro said he would join Donald Trumpโ€™s US and withdraw from the Parisย pact.

That stance drew ire from UN environment chief Erik Solheim. Action on climate change would create โ€œhealthier and wealthierโ€ economies, he told Climate Homeย News.

โ€œA rejection of the Paris Agreement is a rejection of science and fact,โ€ Solheim said. โ€œItโ€™s also a false promise, because politicians who present climate action as a cost to society have got it allย wrong.โ€

Lastย week, Brazilโ€™s government releasedย a statementย declaring the country had met its 2020ย forest emissions target three yearsย early.

โ€œThe policy message is that we can and should remain in the Paris Agreement (because) it is possible to effectively implement the commitments that have been made,โ€ Thiago Mendes, secretary of climate change in the Environment Ministry,ย told Reuters.

The withdrawal of such an important developing country, home to the worldโ€™s largest rainforest, would deal a blow to international climate cooperation. While it has not been confirmed, Brazil was expected to hostย the 2019 UN climateย summit.

But Brazilianย experts downplayed theย likelihood of Bolsonaro carrying out hisย threat.

Unlike in the US, Brazil ratified the Paris Agreement through its congress, said Andrรฉ Guimarรฃes, head of the Amazon Environmental Research Instituteย (Ipam).

โ€œHonestly, I think that there is very little chance that [a withdrawal] happens,โ€ he said. โ€œMy guess is that even if Bolsonaro wins and wants to change the deal, it will not be an easyย task.โ€

Citingย researchย showing that Amazon deforestation could hit rainfall and therefore agriculture,ย Guimarรฃes saidย climate action was in the national interest. โ€œStopping deforestation is good business for Brazil, not just forย environmentalists.โ€

Bolsonaro has not elaborated on why he opposes the Paris Agreement, but some clues can be found in his social mediaย activity.

Last August, Bolsonaro shared an interview with Ricardo Felicio, a geographer andย prominent climate denierย whoย disputes the basic physics of the greenhouseย effect.


Read more about the time climate science denier Ricardo Felicio appeared on Brazil’s most popular talkย show


The day after Trump announced hisย intentionย toย quit the Paris deal, Bolsonoro shared an article defending the decision entitled โ€œthe greenhouseย fablesโ€.

Bolsonaroโ€™s three eldest sons, all elected officials, have been more outspoken on theย issue.

Eduardo, a federal representative from the state of Sรฃo Paulo,ย posted aย homemade videoย in January characterising the Paris deal as a globalist conspiracy. โ€œIt doesnโ€™t make any sense,โ€ he told viewers from a snowy part of the US.

A photograph, reportedly taken last week, shows Eduardo meeting former Trump adviser and far-right propagandist Steve Bannon in New York. Bannon wasย one of the strongestย White House advocates for the US to withdraw from theย deal.

Carlos, a city councillor in Rio de Janeiro, blamed the โ€œleftist agendaโ€ for climate change getting media coverage inย a 2016 tweet.ย He asserted โ€“ against all evidence โ€“ that the world wasย cooling.

Flavio, a federal representative in Rio, hasย called global warming a โ€œfraudโ€.

It comes as Brazil faces international pressure to tackle an up-tick in deforestation, particularly from Norway, which supports forest protection efforts through the Amazon Fund. Last year, Norway more thanย halved its annual paymentย to $35 million, citing poorย results.

In 2016 and 2017,ย Brazil recorded its highest ratesย of tree clearance this century. NGO Imazonโ€™s monthly data showed a further spike in June,ย Mongabay reports.

Michel Temerโ€™s administration hasย courted the beef lobby, rolling back forest protectionsย to allow the expansion of cattle ranches, soy plantations andย mines.

Ten scientistsย wrote inย a letter to the journal Nature Climate Changeย last month that such moves jeopardised Brazilโ€™s climate goals. โ€œThe abandonment of deforestation control policies and the political support for predatory agricultural practices make it impossible to meet targets consistent with Brazilโ€™s contribution to a 2C world,โ€ theyย said.

Climate Action Tracker notesย the 2020 target, which the government claimed as an early win, was in fact already mostly achieved inย 2012, having been weakenedย by artificially inflating the โ€œbusiness as usualโ€ย baseline.

The outlook for meeting the tougher 2030 targets is poor based on current trends, according to analyst Paola Parra: โ€œIt is not looking great for deforestation for theย future.โ€

Ipamโ€™s Guimarรฃes agreed. โ€œIt is very easy to play with numbers,โ€ he said. โ€œAt some point in the future, the challenge for Brazil is to stopย deforestation.โ€

Bruno Toledoย contributed research to thisย article.

Image: Familia Bolsonaro/Flickr CC0

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