A version of this article was first published by the German investigative outlet CORRECTIV

This Sunday, Alternative for Germany (AfD) could assume power for the first time ever in a German state – the highest office that any far-right party has occupied since the Nazi era.

The AfD is currently polling at around 40 percent ahead of the election in Saxony-Anhalt, one of five former eastern German states. The party’s regional leader, Ulrich Siegmund, has run a divisive campaign dubbed “Vision 2026”, which would target irregular migrants and ban display of LGBTQ+ flags in schools.

An outright win would also put the state’s energy and climate policy at risk. In its election manifesto, the AfD promises an “economic boom” for the area. But experts say the party’s hostility to renewables would raise energy prices and damagethe local economy. 

Up until now, Saxony-Anhalt has been a solar and wind power pioneer. In 2024, around 60 percent of the state’s electricity was produced by renewables, higher than the German national average for that year. 

The renewables sector also employs around 26,000 people across its supply chains, according to the state association for renewable energy. One of Germany’s leading wind turbine manufacturers, Enercon, has around 1,000 employees in the state capital Madgeburg alone.

The industry also generates considerable revenue for Saxony-Anhalt – at least €173 million (£149 million) in 2023, according to a study commissioned by the federal ministry for economic affairs and energy. If the state meets Germany’s aim to generate 80 percent of electricity from renewables by 2030, this figure could rise to at least €411 million (£354 million) in 2033.

Oliver Stutzer, managing director of the Magdeburg-based renewable energy plant operator Getec Green Energy Group, warned an AfD victory could cause a “political rupture” to “established conditions for expansion and investment” in renewables. 

The energy transition is no longer solely a matter of climate policy, he told CORRECTIV. “We hope that after the electionenergy policy will be debated pragmatically, grounded on these economic realities.” 

“With an AfD government, there’s a risk that the rollout of renewables will stop,” commented Jörg Dahlke, a board member of the Helionat eG community energy co-operative in Saxony-Anhalt. This, he said, would lead to job losses and pose “a major risk for a large number of companies”.

‘180 Degree U-turn’

The AfD’s manifesto, which pledges a “180-degree U-turn in energy policy”, reflects the position held by the national party. Both would halt Germany’s coal phase-out, build new gas power plants and discontinue renewables. 

In Saxony-Anhalt, the party is calling for a “wind power moratorium” – a complete ban on all new wind turbines. But any state government’s power to enact this is limited, since wind power expansion is regulated at the federal level.

AfD’s most effective lever against wind turbines in the state would be to stall their rollout. The party has already tabled parliamentary motions to prevent new priority areas for wind power, and to permit citizens’ initiatives against these projects. Their aim: to spook investors and ensure deadlines are missed. 

Sources within the industry suggest that some companies could withdraw from new wind projects, should the AfD be elected – contradicting the party’s other stated aim to prioritise small and medium-sized enterprises. CORRECTIV has found that the AfD has supported opponents of wind power in most areas in Saxony-Anhalt.

Solar Power Under Threat

Where the party’s ability to halt wind power may be limited, the threat it poses to solar rollout is considerable. 

This is because the expansion of solar energy is regulated by local authorities, rather than the federal government. An AfD state government could intervene to block local authorities from greenlighting new solar farms, and meet its manifesto promise of opposing building ground-mounted solar projects. 

Stephan Phan, who heads the secretariat of the State Association for Renewable Energy in Saxony-Anhalt, says the state government could slow down the expansion of solar farms by imposing new regulations or bureaucratic hurdles. Smaller solar farms in particular could become less commercially viable.

“Renewable energy is an important location factor in Saxony-Anhalt,” says Phan, who notes that increasingly, companies from other sectors – such as the chemical and food industries – are asking whether electricity from renewable sources is available in the state, and could choose to move elsewhere if Saxony-Anhalt slows its renewables progress.

Weathering Climate Change

An AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt is likely to ditch measures for both climate mitigation and adaptation, instead focusing resources on “protecting the homeland”. In its manifesto, the party claims that climate change cannot be stopped by Germany “and certainly not by Saxony-Anhalt”.

That doesn’t mean climate change isn’t having an impact there, with Germany’s highest ever recorded temperature of 41.5C observed in the state during the June heatwave this summer in the village of Drewitz. 

Meanwhile, the average temperature in the state has increased by around 1.3C since the 1960s. Climate change is alsoleading to a rise in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as floods and heavy rainfall.

This is causing significant economic damage in Saxony-Anhalt. According to data from the German Insurance Association (GDV), damage from floods, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in 2025 cost around €6 million (£5 million), while the cost of storms and hail stood at €22 million (£19 million). In 2024, the cost of damage was even greater. Extreme weather events cost €15 million (£13 million), while storm and hail damage amounted to around €45 million (£39 million).

Agriculture in Saxony-Anhalt is also suffering from the consequences of extreme weather. The state’s Farmers’ Association expects a poor, and in some cases “catastrophic” harvest for 2026, due to heat, drought and low rainfall. Thegroup described the state of water supply across the whole country as “very poor”.

Countless other sectors in Saxony-Anhalt are suffering from the consequences of global warming, with the heatwaves reducing productivity in businesses. 

According to calculations by the Prognos Institute, a single day of extreme heat during the heatwave at the end of June in Saxony-Anhalt cost around €22 million (£19 million). Low water levels in rivers such as the Elbe mean that fewer goods can be transported. The risk of forest fires is increasing.

Yet, AfD’s election manifesto has nothing to say on how Saxony-Anhalt should deal with the consequences of climate change, whether in the here and now or the future.

Editing and fact-checking: Gesa Steeger

Translation: Joey Grostern