Martin Armstrong

Martin A. Armstrong


  • After finishing high school, Armstrong attended RCA Institutes (now TCI College of Technology) in New York City and audited courses at Princeton University but never completed a college degree. [1]


Martin Arthur Armstrong is former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. and the CEO of Armstrong Economics. Martin Armstrong is known for developing the Economic Confidence Model based on business cycles and pi. He has claimed to have predicted the crash of 1987 to the very day, as well as Nikkei’s collapse in 1989, and Russia’s financial collapse in 1998. [2][1], [3]

In September 1999, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission prosecuted Armstrong for fraud. He was imprisoned for over seven years for civil contempt of court, one of the longest-running cases of civil contempt in American legal history. In August 2006, Armstrong pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud and began a five-year sentence. Armstrong appeared in a 2015 documentary titled “The Forecaster” regarding his mathematical model and prosecution. [4],[5][11]

Armstrong started Armstrong Economics in 2007 while he was still in prison. Inspired by letters he was receiving, Armstrong began producing research reports. He relied mainly on the Financial Times for information. In his essays and letters, he compares himself to Adam Smith, Abraham Lincoln, Galileo, and Neo, from “The Matrix.” [1]

Armstrong has published a number of articles where he suggests we are moving into a period of global cooling, or a new ice age. According to Armstrong, “Every possible data series warns that we are heading back into a cooling — not warming — period.” [12]

He has posted photos of snow in Austria, a “dusting of snow reported at Mauna Kea in Hawaii,” and a cold period in Britain as supposed evidence that “Britain is moving into an Ice Age.”[13][14], [15]

Stance on Climate Change

January 16, 2018

Writing at his blog, Armstrong described climate change mitigation measures as an “agenda to eliminate your freedom” and “move toward an authoritarian state”: [20]

“Climate is changing and it is part of the normal cycle – not human-induced. You are actually correct that I support capitalism and freedom and am against authoritarianism and totalitarian systems. What you fail to understand is that climate change is an agenda to eliminate your freedom. The entire argument is to support a move toward an authoritarian state. You better wake up. This is not truly about the climate change, it is all about controlling society, eliminating democracy, and changing the entire economic model that changes society. There is far more at stake here than most people realize.” [20]

July 6, 2016

“There is now growing concern among scientists that we may indeed be heading into global cooling rather than warming. The concerns center on the apparent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This seems to be triggering a growing amount of speculation about abrupt cooling,” Armstrong declared at his blog, ArmstrongEconomics.  [12]

February 14, 2014

“[T]here is ABSOLUTELY no evidence whatsoever that the planet is going through some warming stages created by mankind. That is total nonsense,” Armstrong wrote in a blog article titled “Global Warming Why it is Nonsense.” [6]

Key Quotes

February 20, 2018

Armstrong claimed that CO2 is not a pollutant, that we should not be concerned about rising sea levels, and that there is a population control conspiracy behind global warming prevention measures: [22]

CO2 levels have been much higher than currently over the millennia. The Global Warming crowd has an agenda and the core of that is to reduce the population. They remain influenced by the Malthus theory and have been hell-bent on stopping population growth.

“Over the past 100 million years, we have been in a decline in CO2 level dropping from 500 ppm to 200 ppm with an average of about 300 ppm. They refuse to address any of the historical evidence no less the cycle of life itself.

“Humans exhale typically consists of 40,000 ppm to even 50,000 ppm of CO2. Should we be fined or extinguished because we are a major contributor to COs levels? Those who are demonizing CO2 as a ‘pollutant’ fail to explain that in a room filled with people CO2 levels can commonly reach 2000 ppm with no apparent ill effects.”

December 20, 2017

Writing at his blog, Armstrong warned of impending global cooling: [21]

“The danger from the Global Warming crowd is that they are misleading the entire world and preventing us from what is dangerously unfolding that sparks the rapid decline in civilization – GLOBAL COOLING. I previously warned that this is not my opinion, but simply our computer. If it were really conscious it would be running to store to buy heating pads. This year will be much colder for Europe than the last three. It will also be cold in the USA. We are in a global cooling period and all the data we have in our computer system warns that the earth is turning cold not warm.

“This cooling is very serious. This decline in the energy output of the sun will manifest in a commodity boom in agriculture as shortages send food prices higher. We will see famine begin to rise as crops fail and that will inspire disease and plagues. We will see the first peak in agricultural prices come probably around 2024 after the lows are established on this cycle. We have been warning that this rise would begin AFTER 2017.”

June 9, 2016

“Britain is moving into an Ice Age and energy prices are rising, for the U.K. is as cold today as it was in December,” Armstrong wrote at ArmstrongEconomics[15]

March 21, 2015

“Instead of wasting all this effort to try to support government raising taxes on people to prevent ‘Global Warming’ or ‘Climate Change’, it might be better spent informing people we are going back into a cooling period and there will be wild swings back and forth for the next 25 years. It snowed here on Friday and the back 60 degrees for Saturday,” Armstrong wrote in an ArmstrongEconomics article titled “The Ice Age Cometh.”[9]

February 2, 2015

“An investigation of the raw data recording temperature, has revealed that once again these academics are manipulating the data to keep billions of dollars flowing into their hands. No matter how many times they are caught, government will not change course because they want to believe in global warming to justify higher taxes,” Armstrong wrote at ArmstrongEconomics[8]

May, 2014

“Anyone who thinks that Global Warming is really caused by man is naive to say the least. This is a political agenda to raise taxes by politicians and to reduce population growth among academics.” [7]

“Global Warming is all about money and raising taxes for politicians to pay for their pensions and support all their illegitimate children,” Armstrong wrote at ArmstrongEconomics[7]

October 12, 2009

Martin Armstrong contended that global warming is “nonsense” in an article at his blog, ArmstrongEconomics:  [6]

“[P]eople ASSUME that we even have the power with nuclear bombs to destroy then planet. That is probably not even likely. They also assume that if we set one-off all life will be dead forever. They make a lot of assumptions based upon a guess that is NOT even EDUCATED.”  [6]

“We can impact a local area, but we CANNOT alter the course of the entire planet. On that score, we are but a pimple on a fly’s ass. So until I see HARD evidence beyond assumptions for a few decades, I will keep it real. We can not alter the trend of a market anymore than we can change the environment of the entire world” (emphasis in original). [6]

Comments Surrounding 2021 Capitol Insurrection

Armstrong penned a blog post about the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection titled “The Insurrection Part of the Plot.” [23]

In the post, Armstrong claimed: “There may have been plants who deliberately instigated storming the Capitol Building just as others placed skids of bricks and broke windows to encourage the Black Live protests into looting.”

He also commented some photos of the protestors appeared “staged”:

Key Deeds

January 16, 2018

In a blog post titled “Is Climate Change a Tool to Eliminate Democracy?” Armstrong argued that “climate change is an agenda to eliminate your freedom. The entire argument is to support a move toward an authoritarian state.” [20]

Armstrong made the unsubstantiated claim that all climate models have been found in error: [20]

“It’s a well-kept secret, but 95 per cent of the climate models we are told prove the link between human CO2 emissions and catastrophic global warming have been found, after nearly two decades of temperature stasis, to be in error. It’s not surprising.” [20]

He concluded with a call-to-action for readers to resist: [20]

“Resisting will be politically difficult. But resist we should. We are already paying an unnecessary social and economic price for empty gestures. Enough is enough.” [20]

January 7, 2013

Martin Armstrong published a climate change report for the Princeton Economics Research Institute. He included a inflammatory photo of Al Gore in the report, and referenced climate change skeptic Sallie Baliunas‘s work as “highly important in understanding the long-term interaction between weather and the economy.” [10]

Armstrong reached the following conclusion (emphasis added):

“The climate record shows that the global warming of 1°F observed over the last 100 years is not unusual.  Global temperature changes of this magnitude have occurred frequently in the past and are a result of natural factors in climate change.

But is it possible that the particular temperature increase observed in the last 100 years is the result of carbon dioxide produced by human activities?  The scientific evidence clearly indicates that this is not the case.

All climate studies agree that if the one-degree global warming was produced by an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the additional CO2 first warms the atmosphere, and the warmed atmosphere, in turn, warms the earth’s surface.  However, measurements of atmospheric temperatures made by instruments lofted in satellites and balloons show that no warming has occurred in the atmosphere in the last 50 years.  This is just the period in which human made carbon dioxide has been pouring into the atmosphere and according to the climate studies, the resultant atmospheric warming should be clearly evident.

The absence of atmospheric warming proves that the warming of the earth’s surface observed in the last 100 years cannot be due to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere caused by human activities. The recent global warming must be the result of natural factors in climate change.

Skeptical Science has provided an analysis of common assertions made by climate change skeptics. Here is a breakdown of what scientists have said about similar arguments to those in Armstrong’s report. 

Skeptic Argument: Climate has changed before. 

What the Science SaysGreenhouse gasses, principally CO2, have controlled most ancient climate changes. This time around humans are the cause, mainly by our CO2 emissions. [16]

Skeptic Argument: Global Warming has stopped/is not happening. 

What the Science Says:  Global temperatures continue to rise steadily beneath the short-term noise. [17]

Skeptic Argument: Global Warming is due to natural causes, not humans. 

What the Science Says:   There are many lines of evidence which clearly show that the atmospheric CO2 increase is caused by humans.  The clearest of these is simple accounting – humans are emitting CO2 at a rate twice as fast as the atmospheric increase (natural sinks are absorbing the other half).  There is no question whatsoever that the CO2 increase is human-caused.  This is settled science.


Social Media


  • Martin Armstrong has not published any articles in Peer-Reviewed journals, according to a search of Google Scholar. His website provides a full list of his economic publications, mostly through Armstrong Economics, back to 1995. 
  • Martin Armstrong is featured in The Forecaster, a movie that details how he formed the Economic Confidence Model.

Armstrong Economics

Martin Armstrong has started commented regularly on climate change at his blog at Armstrong Economics. Originally dedicated to economic predictions, the blog later featured a number of articles denying the existence or importance of man-made climate change. Samples below:


  1. Nick Paumgarten. “The Secret Cycle,” The New Yorker, October 12, 2009. Archived July 9, 2015. URL

  2. Robin Goldwyn Blumenthal. “Circular Reasoning: A Market for Pi in the Sky?“ Barron’s, June 25, 2011. Archived July 9, 2015. URL

  3. Zeke Faux and David Glovin. “After Prison, a Forecaster Aims for a Comeback,” Bloomberg Business Week. October 13, 2011. Archived July 9, 2015. URL

  4. Michael J. de la Merced. “Jailed 7 Years for Contempt, Adviser Is Headed for Prison,” The New York Times, April 28, 2007. Archived July 9, 2015. URL

  5. Ashby Jones. “No Charge: In Civil-Contempt Cases, Jail Time Can Stretch On for Years,” The Wall Street Journal, January 8, 2009. Archived July 9, 2015. URL

  6. Martin Armstrong. “Global Warming Why it is Nonsense,” ArmstrongEconomics.COM, February 13, 2014. Archived July 9, 2015. URL

  7. Martin Armstrong. “Global Warming Fascist Movement & Academic Welfare,” ArmstrongEconomics.COM, May 18, 2014. Archived July 9, 2015. URL:

  8. Martin Armstrong. “Scientists Caught Again Faking Global Warming Data,” ArmstrongEconomics.COM, February 2, 2015. Archived July 9, 2015. URL

  9. Martin Armstrong. “The Ice Age Cometh,” ArmstrongEconomics.COM, March 21, 2015. Archived July 10, 2015. URL

  10. Climate Change,” Princeton Economics Research Institute (Published at ArmstrongEconomics.COM). January 7th, 2013. Archived July 10, 2015. URL

  11. Michael O’Sullivan. ”’The Forecaster’: Criminal or financial Wizard?The Washington Post, April 9, 2015. URL:

  12. The End of Global Warming — the New Ice Age — Bundle Up!” ArmstrongEconomics, July 6, 2016. Archived July 5, 2016. URL

  13. Snowing in July in Austria,” ArmstrongEconomics, July 24, 2016. URL

  14. It Snowed in Hawaii?” ArmstrongEconomics, June 19, 2016.  Archived August 6, 2016. URL

  15. Britain’s Ice Age Is Unfolding,” ArmstrongEconomics, June 9, 2016. URL

  16. What does past climate change tell us about global warming?SkepticalScience. Archived August 4, 2016. URL

  17. Did global warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?SkepticalScience. Archived August 4, 2016. URL

  18. ABOUT MARTIN ARMSTRONG” (PDF), Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

  19. About,” ArmstrongEconomics. Archived August 6, 2016. URL

  20. Is Climate Change a Tool to Eliminate Democracy?ArmstrongEconomics, January 16, 2018. Archived February 25, 2018. URL:

  21. The Sun is Cooling Faster than Anyone Suspected,” ArmstrongEconomics, December 20, 2017. Archived February 25, 2018. URL

  22. Climate Change Conspiracy Against us All,” ArmstrongEconomics, February 20, 2018. Archived February 25, 2018. URL:

  23. The Insurrection Part of the Plot,” Armstrong Economics, January 8, 2021. Archived January 10, 2021. Archive URL

Other Resources

* Profile Image Rick Maiman/Bloomberg News

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